Should We Be Worried about Nuclear War?
No one really wants to die in a nuclear holocaust
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On April 11, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran had rejoined the ranks of nations with nuclear technology. Outraged, the United States declared that Iran must suspend its nuclear program immediately. “All options are on the table,” said U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney, intimating that the army might have to intervene.
Are we closer than ever to the first nuclear conflict since 1945? “The more fingers there are on the button, the greater the risk of someone’s finger slipping,” says Michel Fortmann, a professor in the Department of Political Science and founder of the Université de Montréal-McGill Research Group in International Security (REGIS). There are five declared nuclear powers in the world: the U.S., Russia, France, China and England. Israel is not officially part of the group, but it’s an open secret that Israel has a nuclear arsenal. Pakistan and India recently joined the club, not to mention Iran and North Korea. “And let’s not forget the 40 or so countries that could be called virtual nuclear powers, in the sense that they’ve mastered the technologies required to manufacture nuclear arms,” explains Fortmann.
Japan, for example, has several thousands of tons of fuel that could be used for nuclear purposes. “Atomic weapons are already in place, and some are pointed at major centres around the world. In less than 30 minutes, a whole city could be blown off the map if the command were given in Washington, Moscow, or somewhere else,” says Fortmann.
But will it happen? “It all depends on the political tensions.” Fortmann believes that the U.S. and Iran are currently engaged in a game of intimidation that could be compared to a game of “chicken” played by two reckless drivers on the highway. Still, Fortmann and some other experts are guardedly optimistic. “Who would benefit from a war that would cause major damage in the ranks of the protagonists?”
